
Single-point estimates tempt us to round toward desire. Use P10–P90 ranges, explain drivers, and connect them to risk mitigations. When reviewers see distribution shapes, they ask smarter questions and approve smarter contingencies. Over time, forecast bias shrinks, schedules stabilize, and leaders reward teams for honest variance, not for theatrics that hide volatility until it explodes.

Executives are busy; give them clarity, not calculus. Summarize expected value, downside protection, and upside option value in plain language. Use tornado charts and scenario narratives, not dense equations. Link choices to thresholds the board already cares about, like covenant headroom, capacity utilization, or emissions targets. Probability speaks fluently when tied to outcomes leaders must defend publicly.

Every promising case contains a fragile assumption that, if false, collapses the value. Name it explicitly and design a fast test. Run a pre-mortem: imagine failure, trace causes, and capture mitigations. This ritual builds psychological safety, encourages candor, and transforms skepticism into a structured contribution that strengthens both the investment logic and the delivery plan.